Was making a delivery yesterday and overheard a girl talking to her friend and saying… “I’m in a pretty well-paid job now and I really can’t make it until the end of each month any more.”

This sentiment seems like it’s spreading. Jack Dorsey (Twitter/Square) tweeted yesterday that hyperinflation is coming. I’m currently reading ‘When Money Dies’ and the same early indicators for the collapse of the Weimar Republic are eerily similar to what we’re seeing today. Thoughts from other business owners/individuals on this?

It’s an interesting that Jack has made this predication…and worth noting that he’s reasonably incentivised to do so. More interestingly though it was interesting to me that Rishi in the budget this week acknowledged that UK would likely hit 4% inflation early next year…which means that in reality it’ll likely be higher than that. I’m hearing experts now predicting 5%.

I don’t pay a whole lot of attention to their inflation metric Jonny. They’ve changed the indices significantly down the through the years and generally to reflect a lower reading and save face. The basket of goods measured now includes things with very low fixed margin costs like a loaf of bread, a Netflix subscription etc. This reading is fine if you want to live with your mum for the rest of your life, but if you’re wanting to buy a house, a car, invest, or own any assets at all, in reality it’s more like ~15%. You just can’t print as much money as they have and keep it low and now they are in a position where they have to print their way out of debt. I’d be surprised if they raise interest rates on Thurs in spite of the theatre, and if they do, it’ll be a few basis points and they’ll likely have to drop it again and just keep printing.

With the amount of money printing, hyperinflation is only a matter of time away, which is why I think we need to get as much currency as we can into inflation safe assets before they run out of money to print to satisfy their debts and our currency is useless.

According to government statistics the inflation rate each year has been between 0.37% and 3.86%. Something is definitely fishy and untruthful in those figures as going of the price of a freddo alone from 10p-24p in the last 20 years puts inflation at 12% a year for the last 20 years! I bet chocolate is the lower end of inflation too! Houses and cars ect must be 2,3,4 times higher than that. Question is, will Bit Coin and other cryptos survive the inflation crash like gold or silver?

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Couldn’t agree more Luke, and yes, using bigger ticket assets like houses and cars definitely provide more accurate optics through which to view inflation.

As to Bitcoin’s resistance to a massive correction (at best) or complete economic collapse, only time will tell. My guess is that if it’s a collapse, cryptos will likely unwind down to the ground, along with everything else; with so much money in the system, there’s a lot of malinvestment in cryptos, where I think Bitcoin has now proved itself as the hardest monetary asset that’s ever existed. If it unwinds, which it might, the tailwinds that will gather behind it will likely send it to global currency status and if it has an 80% draw down, it’ll be next to impossible to get on exchanges to buy it before it goes parabolic as the masses run to it as the apex SoV.

The posturing and theatre of the G4 and interest rates/tapering at the moment is almost monty pythonesque. On the other hand, the absence of a way out for them and their fumbling around, is a prelude to the inevitable and the pain that’ll come to many with a crash and transition.

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Very interesting views, thanks for sharing. With all thats gone on with the pandemic and the continued monetary debasement it all looks to be leading to a big crash. I don’t think the world will be the same afterwards. Perhaps Bit Coin will become the world’s global currency? It will be very interesting to see what place Bit Coin takes then. I’m about to get into conspiracy territory lol but I think it’s one of the best assets you can buy right now to protect yourself; tho I do think a bit of diversification is a good idea too. Commodities like coffee might do very well also :sweat_smile:

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